Climate change and tensions among farmers, herders and fishers in Africa.
The Shifting Map No. 3.
A floodplain can sustain several livelihoods: crops on its fertile soils, livestock on its pastures, and fishing in its waters. Sharing this landscape requires much more than just the availability of resources; it requires agreements about access, movement, and timing. Across parts of Africa, climate change is making those arrangements harder to maintain. Rising temperatures and disrupted rainfall put pressure on livelihoods whose coexistence depends on the rhythm of the seasons.
For farmers, heat and water stress can reduce harvests. For herders, the degradation of pasture and the unpredictability of water supplies can change the movement of animals and the length of time spent in specific areas. Fishers face changes in aquatic habitats and in access to productive waters. In cases where livestock movements overlap with farming, crop damage can lead to disputes over compensation, passage or ownership. These pressures challenge both livelihoods and the arrangements that allow different users to share resources.
Across West Africa, these pressures interact with insecurity, agricultural expansion, and unequal access to land. Research by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) identifies several key factors linking climate stress to violent conflict, including intensifying clashes between farmers and herders, as well as governance that is at times weak, divisive, or even predatory in nature (Tarif, 2022). Mali’s Inner Niger Delta is a particular striking example: even in a relatively resource-rich landscape, changing transhumance patterns driven, among other factors, by agricultural policies and the expansion of cultivation, can increase the risk of violence between herders and other livelihood groups, as documented by NUPI (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) and SIPRI (NUPI/SIPRI, 2021; Hegazi et al., 2021). Furthermore, the wider Niger River basin supports farming, livestock and inland fisheries, making coordination across these various sectors essential.
The Lake Chad region provides another example, linking West and Central Africa through Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. A June 2026 NUPI/SIPRI fact sheet identifies erratic rainfall, drought, desertification, and flooding as pressures undermining farming, herding and fishing (Iversen et al., 2026). Households often combine these activities across different seasons. To view them as three strictly separate sectors is to fail to grasp how local populations sustain their livelihoods, or how environmental changes can simultaneously affect multiple sources of income.
Insecurity further restricts households’ choices. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) has documented how, in the Liptako-Gourma region – which encompasses territories in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – the spread of non-state armed groups has displaced millions of people and restricted access to grazing areas, intensifying competition for land, water, and pasture (FAO, 2026). A household facing a poor season may find that the alternatives they usually rely on are no longer accessible, precisely at the moment they are needed most. Climate adaptation becomes harder when movement and access are constrained by violence or security measures.
Environmental abundance does not guarantee the security of livelihoods. Around Lake Chad, armed groups are deeply entrenched in the region’s natural resource economy, which contributes to their materinl sustainment (Iversen et al., 2026). Resources may exist, yet people may be unable to use them safely. Beyond physical ability, access and authority are what matter.
The legal and political question is central: who may use which resource, when, and under what authority? Governments should clarify seasonal access while preserving the flexibility required by mobile livelihoods. Grazing corridors, fishing access and cultivation rights need effective negotiation and dispute resolution procedures. Participation must reflect the unequal distribution of burdens: women often bear a disproportionate responsibility for procuring water, food, and fuel, and tensions between displaced people and host communities add further pressure. Both groups need a voice in decisions regarding resources.
Infrastructure also requires the same level of attention. It is necessary to assess how irrigation systems and water supply points distribute access to resources. Adaptation funding should support not only technical investment but also mediation activities. The long-running experience of UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) in North Darfur’s Wadi El Ku catchment shows demonstrates how interventions in the agricultural and water sectors, when accompanied by inclusive dialogue and local governance, can strengthen trust and facilitate dispute resolution (UNEP, 2017, 2018).
Climatic pressures in Africa vary significantly, and a failed rainy season does not automatically lead to violence. However, warming can narrow the space within which neighbours accommodate one another. Preserving that space requires equitable access, credible institutions, and agreements capable of evolving alongiside the landscape. As seasons become less predictable, cooperation requires a stronger foundation.
References
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (2017). Lake Chad Basin crisis: Response strategy (2017–2019). FAO.
FAO. (2026). Promoting peaceful transhumance in the Liptako-Gourma region: Lessons learned on pathways to peace in the face of climate change and insecurity in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. FAO KORE.
Hegazi, F., Krampe, F., & Seymour Smith, E. (2021). Climate-related security risks and peacebuilding in Mali (SIPRI Policy Paper No. 60). SIPRI.
Iversen, T. O., Seyuba, K., Tchie, A. E. Y., Brodtkorb, I. B., & Duhamel, J. (2026). Climate, peace and security fact sheet: Lake Chad. NUPI/SIPRI.
NUPI/SIPRI. (2021). Climate, peace and security fact sheet: Sahel. NUPI/SIPRI.
Tarif, K. (2022). Climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: Assessing the evidence (SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security No. 2022/3). SIPRI. https://doi.org/10.55163/VHIY5372
UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). (2017). Reversing the cycle of conflict over resources in North Darfur. UNEP.
UNEP. (2018). Water catchment project is expanded to aid peace and economic recovery in North Darfur. UNEP.
